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2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Sassmaster15
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an active year of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Overall, due to the presence of a weak La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, activity was above-average and the season was considered the most active since the 2012 season. While the dates that typically delimit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin are from June 1 to November 30, the season began exceptionally early with the formation of Hurricane Alex in mid-January; nearly five months prior to the official start. Tropical Storm Bonnie followed in late May, marking the first occurrence of two pre-season tropical cyclones since 2012. As demonstrated by these atypical formations, tropical cyclone development is possible any time of the year. Meanwhile, Tropical Storms Colin and Danielle were the earliest third and fourth named storms on record, respectively. In early August, Hurricane Earl slammed Belize and later became the deadliest hurricane to impact Mexico since Hurricane Stan. Subsequently following was Hurricane Hermine, the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma, while Tropical Storm Julia was the first tropical storm to form over Florida on record. Between September and October, Hurricane Matthew became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix. In addition, Hurricane Nicole became the first major hurricane in the month of November since Hurricane Paloma. Due to a combination of factors, including the development of a La Niña and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, activity was above-average and more or less met seasonal predictions. A majority of the season's tropical cyclones affected land to some degree and each one to do so caused loss of life, directly or indirectly. Hurricane Matthew was by far the costliest and deadliest, causing over $3 billion in damage to the Greater Antilles as well as the Carolinas. It should also be noted that the season was the first since 2007 to feature both pre-season and post-season activity. Seasonal Outlook Overview ImageSize = width:700 height:275 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:190 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/01/2016 till:31/01/2017 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2016 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-129_mph id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130-156_mph id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_157_mph Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:12/01/2016 till:15/01/2016 color:C1 text:Alex (C1) from:27/05/2016 till:05/06/2016 color:TS text:Bonnie (TS) from:05/06/2016 till:08/06/2016 color:TS text:Colin (TS) from:19/06/2016 till:21/06/2016 color:TS text:Danielle (TS) from:08/07/2016 till:10/07/2016 color:TS text:Unnamed (TS) from:31/07/2016 till:06/08/2016 color:C1 text:Earl (C1) from:17/08/2016 till:23/08/2016 color:TS text:Fiona (TS) from:22/08/2016 till:03/09/2016 color:C4 text:Gaston (C4) from:28/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 color:TD text:Eight (TD) from:28/08/2016 till:04/09/2016 color:C1 text:Hermine (C1) from:12/09/2016 till:16/09/2016 color:TS text:Ian (TS) from:14/09/2016 till:19/09/2016 color:TS text:Julia (TS) barset:break from:14/09/2016 till:25/09/2016 color:C2 text:Karl (C2) from:19/09/2016 till:25/09/2016 color:TS text:Lisa (TS) from:28/09/2016 till:10/10/2016 color:C5 text:Matthew (C5) from:07/10/2016 till:09/10/2016 color:TD text:Fifteen (TD) from:30/10/2016 till:05/11/2016 color:C4 text:Nicole (C4) from:16/11/2016 till:19/11/2016 color:C1 text:Otto (C1) from:09/12/2016 till:12/12/2016 color:TS text:Paula (SS) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/01/2016 till:01/02/2016 text:January from:01/02/2016 till:01/03/2016 text:February from:01/03/2016 till:01/04/2016 text:March from:01/04/2016 till:01/05/2016 text:April from:01/05/2016 till:01/06/2016 text:May from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2016 text:June from:01/07/2016 till:01/08/2016 text:July from:01/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 text:August from:01/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 text:September from:01/10/2016 till:01/11/2016 text:October from:01/11/2016 till:01/12/2016 text:November from:01/12/2016 till:01/01/2017 text:December from:01/01/2017 till:31/01/2017 text:2017 TextData = pos:(400,30) text:"(From the" pos:(447,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Pre-Season The season began exceptionally early, with the evolution of an extratropical cyclone to Hurricane Alex in mid-January. Alex first gained subtropical characteristics in the subtropical Atlantic, prior to becoming a fully tropical hurricane as it shifted northward. Alex then passed through the Azores as a minimal hurricane, eventually making landfall on the island of Terceira just as it weakened below hurricane intensity. Alex became extratropical once again just north of the Azores and was absorbed into a larger system in southern Labrador Sea on January 15. Mesoscale convective energy, leftover from the formation of the system, contributed to the formation of a powerful winter storm just west of the Azores. Tropical cyclogenesis did not ensue again until late May, with an area of of disturbed weather officially being classified as a tropical depression on May 27. This system, better known as Tropical Storm Bonnie, was a weak but persistent tropical cyclone that brought flooding rains to the Carolinas over Memorial Day weekend. While Bonnie eventually turned post-tropical inland, it later regenerated over the open Atlantic just offshore North Carolina and re-attained its initial peak intensity as a weak tropical storm prior to dissipating south of Bermuda in early June. Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane in the month of January since Hurricane Alice of 1954, and the first to form in the month since a storm in 1938. Bonnie, having formed just days before the official start of the season, marked the first occurrence of two pre-season tropical cyclones since 2012, and is the third only known occurrence on record since 1951. Season The majority of the season was highly active and featured a number of named storms, hurricanes, as well as three major hurricanes - the highest seasonal total within an Atlantic hurricane season since 2011. June & July On June 5, the same day Tropical Storm Bonnie dissipated, a new tropical disturbance near the Yucatán Peninsula consolidated into a tropical depression. The subsequent day, it was named Tropical Storm Colin, the earliest named "C" storm on record. Colin then made landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida as a marginal but large tropical storm. It made a second landfall near South Carolina a day later and re-attained its initial peak wind speed of 60 miles per hour as it skirted North Carolina. Colin remained at this intensity even as it turned extratropical. After a short respite in activity, an invest, dubbed 94L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), began to consolidate in the Bay of Campeche. This briefly peaked as Tropical Storm Danielle, prior to weakening and making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz as a tropical depression which dissipated hours later. The month of July remained largely dormant, as operationally no storms developed throughout the month. However, a system near New England was found to have attained tropical storm status for at least two days as it remained stationed just off-shore New England. In addition, while Hurricane Earl operationally formed on August 2, it was determined the hurricane had formed much earlier, July 31, as its precursor disturbance entered the Caribbean. August & September As mentioned above, Hurricane Earl formed in July but spent the majority of its existence through August. Earl first caused serious damage in the Lesser Antilles as a moderate tropical storm as it carved a westerly path across the Caribbean. Earl attained hurricane status shortly before making landfall at that intensity in Belize. Earl re-gained strength in the Bay of Campeche and made its second landfall in Veracruz as a strong tropical storm. Earl's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Javier in the eastern Pacific days later. Tropical Storm Fiona developed weeks later in the Main Development Region (MDR) from an initially organized tropical wave. Due to unfavorable conditions, Fiona failed to intensify beyond strong tropical storm status and became a remnant low several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. The next storm, Hurricane Gaston, a powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane also developed from a tropical wave about a week following Fiona and took a northwesterly path into the subtropical Atlantic where it briefly attained minimal hurricane status. However, shortly afterward, Gaston fell victim to the Saharan Air Layer as its circulation became elongated and "barely tropical". However, Gaston shifted northeast and later attained major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher according to the Saffir-simpson scale as it became a powerful annular hurricane. Operationally a high-end Category 3 hurricane, Gaston was found to have attained Category 4 status in post-analysis. Gaston subsequently weakened below hurricane intensity as it brushed the Azores, while its extratropical remnants went on to affect parts of Europe. Tropical Depression Eight developed in late August from an area of disturbed weather adjacent to Bermuda. While forecasts from the NHC forecasted a peak as a weak tropical storm, the depression failed to intensify beyond 35 miles per hour and dissipated east of Virginia in early September. The system brought rain showers and rough surf to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as it passed to the east while remaining offshore. Hurricane Hermine formed the same day from an initially well-organized and developed tropical wave, but did not begin intensifying until reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Rapidly intensifying throughout early September, Hermine subsequently made landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida at peak intensity. Hermine was the first hurricane-strength landfall in the state since Hurricane Wilma of 2005, ending a record eleven-year lull in which no hurricanes made landfall in the state. The storm continued to cause a swatch of destruction across the United States, including bringing torrential rain, flooding, and high winds to Georgia as well as the Carolinas throughout Labor Day weekend. Hermine eventually meandered just off-shore New Jersey as a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone that at one point re-attained hurricane-force winds. A state of emergency was declared by Governor Chris Christie in anticipation for an event similar to that of Hurricane Sandy. However, the storm later dissipated and all impacts were minimal. After another short respite in activity, Tropical Storm Ian developed in mid-September from a tropical wave. Ian remained away from land during its lifetime as it carved a near northerly path across the central subtropical Atlantic, while its remnants went on to affect Europe. Only two days later, Tropical Storm Julia formed over eastern Florida - the first named storm on record to do so. Julia's formation can likely be attributed to the Brown Ocean Effect, as it retained its intensity as a compact tropical storm that also affected Georgia and South Carolina. Julia turned post-tropical as it emerged over water, while its remnants went on to affect North Carolina. Subsequently, Hurricane Karl formed out of a tropical wave that tracked westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Initially unfavorable conditions prevented significant intensification. Karl later began rapidly intensifying northeast of the Leeward Islands and fell just short of major hurricane status. As the storm accelerated northeast, it weakened to just below hurricane intensity as it brushed Bermuda with minor impacts. Karl then re-attained minimal hurricane status as it continued racing northeast and remained at this strength even as it turned extratropical. Just days after Karl's formation, another tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa. It rapidly consolidated to Tropical Storm Lisa, which cut a near westerly track across the Main Development Region as it failed to intensify beyond marginal tropical storm status. The remnants of the cyclone were monitored for potential regeneration near the Azores, though this failed to materialize. At the end of September and into October, another tropical wave began to consolidate just east of the Lesser Antilles. This began rapidly intensifying to Hurricane Matthew in the eastern Caribbean, later becoming the first Category 5 hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Felix as well as the southernmost Category 5 on record, surpassing Hurricane Ivan. Matthew became the first hurricane and major hurricane to affect Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti since Hurricane Sandy. Matthew went on to subsequently affect the Bahamas, compounding effects from Hurricane Joaquin the year prior. Matthew made its final landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma as well as the most intense storm to landfall in the United States since Hurricane Charley. The remnants of Matthew were last noted over Atlantic Canada on October 11. October & November While Hurricane Matthew persisted well into October, the first official storm development of the month was Tropical Depression Fifteen. While initially forecast to peak as a weak tropical storm, the depression was heavily sheared by Hurricane Matthew, in addition to entrainment from the Saharan Air Layer, which caused the system to rapidly weaken and dissipate within days. Hurricane Nicole, the season's final major hurricane, developed at the end of the month in the western Caribbean and rapidly intensified as it took a track north-northeast - becoming the first major hurricane in the month since Hurricane Paloma, as well as the third-strongest November hurricane on record. Nicole subsequently made landfall in central Cuba, a region untouched by Hurricane Matthew the previous month. It was the first major hurricane landfall in the nation since Hurricane Sandy, as well as the strongest and most intense hurricane to landfall there since Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Nicole subsequently went on to brush southern Florida as a major hurricane and cross the Bahamas, compounding destruction from Matthew. Nicole was later absorbed into a front just as it departed the archipelago. Later that month, Hurricane Otto developed from an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic and shifted northeast into the subtropics, where it acquired a brief peak as a minimal hurricane. The remnants of the cyclone brought unsettled weather to Europe and caused significant damage in the United Kingdom. Post-Season The only post-season storm, Subtropical Storm Paula, was the first in the month since an unnamed subtropical storm in 2013. Meandering around the subtropical Atlantic for several days, Paula later dissipated on December 12 without affecting land. Storms Hurricane Alex Around January 10, an extratropical cyclone formed north of the Bahamas and slowly gained strength as it drifted to the northeast. Ahead of the subtropical jet stream, the cyclone slowly gained a surface vortex while stationed 29 miles northeast of the Bahamas. Initial atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 26-27 degrees Celsius inhibited tropical cyclogenesis as it approached the island nation of Bermuda. With a gradually expanding wind field, the cyclone lashed the nation with gale-force winds and heavy rain throughout the day January 11, bringing gusts exceeding 55 knots (65 miles per hour) in strength. Later that same day, an anomalous blocking pattern inhibited the cyclone from continuing on a northeasterly course and instead and endured a track shift to the east. In this region of the subtropical Atlantic, conditions were more conducive to subtropical cyclogenesis. A brief convective burst generated hurricane-force winds in the system that night and into the subsequent day as it rapidly deepened to 976 millibars, even though convective activity near the center was sparse, if at all existent. On January 12, the cyclone separated itself from the jet stream and turned southeast while under the influence of a mid-latitude trough, and weakened as a result. Throughout the latter portion of the day, substantial structural changes occurred as the occluded cyclone grew increasingly separated from its frontal boundaries, while convection began to coalesce around the center of the low atop the circulation. In combination with the aforementioned factors, the cyclone's location adjacent to an cold-core low, indicated the fundamental beginnings of a transition to a subtropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center first issued advisories on the newly-formed subtropical storm at 21:00 UTC and was assigned the name Alex, respectively. However, operationally, the NHC did not initiate advisories on Alex until midday January 13. Though convection initially remained shallow, it was deemed deep and substantial enough for classification. At the time of this occurrence, Alex remained situated approximately 1,000 miles southwest of the Canary Islands. Embedded within the same trough that turned the cyclone southeast, it later turned Alex to the north-northeast. At 00:00 UTC, the presence of an eye was noted at the center of circulation amidst complex banding features, signifying the beginnings of intensification were underway. This eye feature later cleared out early January 14 and was surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of at least -60 degrees Celsius. Alex then moved away from the low it was previously positioned under, later acquiring a warm core alongside upper-level outflow, further stipulating Alex was obtaining tropical characteristics. Despite passing over waters with temperatures no higher than 24-26 degrees Celsius, Alex never ceased deepening and was deemed a fully tropical cyclone at 10:00 UTC. Enabled by below-average upper-tropospheric temperatures, instability greatly increased as Alex progressed towards the Azores. Upon transition into a fully tropical cyclone, satellite estimates using the Dvorak technique designated Alex as a hurricane - first of the season. Shortly thereafter, Alex is estimated to have achieved its peak intensity of 80 knots (90 miles per hour), 979 millibars while advancing towards the Azores. Initially, Alex was estimated to have peaked at 75 knots (85 miles per hour), 981 millibars, but this was found to be otherwise as the hurricane was found to be slightly stronger in post-analysis, as verified by Dvorak estimates. Into January 15, as it continued approaching the Azores, Alex underwent gradual weakening as it endured decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear. Becoming increasingly tilted in height, Alex weakened to 65 knots as it entered the Azores and shortly thereafter to a tropical storm as it made landfall on the island of Terceira at 22:00 UTC. Alex subjected the entire archipelago to an extended period of heavy rainfall, rough surf, and strong winds as it directly through the island chain. Departing the Azores that evening, the cyclone's eyewall then opened up, exposing its circulation and decaying convective structure; indicating the cyclone was undergoing a transition back to an extratropical cyclone. Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Storm Colin Tropical Storm Danielle Unnamed Tropical Storm Hurricane Earl Tropical Storm Fiona Hurricane Gaston Tropical Depression Eight Hurricane Hermine Tropical Storm Ian Tropical Storm Julia Hurricane Karl Tropical Storm Lisa Hurricane Matthew Tropical Depression Fifteen Hurricane Nicole Hurricane Otto Subtropical Storm Paula Storm Names Season Effects {| class="toc" border="0" float="right" ! Storms |- | |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Alex, Hurricane" |C1 |Alex |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Bonnie, Tropical Storm" |TS |Bonnie |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Colin, Tropical Storm" |TS |Colin |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Danielle, Tropical Storm" |TS |Danielle |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Unnamed, Tropical Storm" |TS |Unnamed |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Earl, Hurricane" |C1 |Earl |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Fiona, Tropical Storm" |TS |Fiona |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Gaston, Major Hurricane" |C4 |Gaston |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Eight, Tropical Depression" |TD |Eight |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Hermine, Hurricane" |C1 |Hermine |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Ian, Tropical Storm" |TS |Ian |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Julia, Tropical Storm" |TS |Julia |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Karl, Hurricane" |C2 |Karl |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Lisa, Tropical Storm" |TS |Lisa |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Matthew, Major Hurricane" |C5 |Matthew |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Fifteen, Tropical Depression" |TD |Fifteen |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Nicole, Major Hurricane" |C4 |Nicole |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Otto, Hurricane" |C1 |Otto |- | style="background-color: # ; text-align:center;" title="Paula, Tropical Storm" |SS |Paula |- Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes Pages Category:Hypothetical Hurricane Seasons Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:Cyclones Category:Subtropical Cyclones Category:Future Seasons Category:Current Seasons Category:Atlantic Hurricanes